EU ETS
The EU carbon market (EU ETS) and its extension to buildings and road transport (ETS2): rules, covered sectors, free allocation, auctions, allowance price trends and forecasts, ongoing reforms.
Our analysis of the EU ETS, ETS2 and carbon allowance prices
EU ETS penalty: what happens if you surrender too few allowances?
Quotas non restitués à temps : que risque vraiment votre installation industrielle ?
November 13, 2026
Waste Incineration and the EU ETS: Who Will Be Covered and When?
Incinération des déchets et SEQE-UE : quelles obligations pour votre installation ?
November 6, 2026
EU Carbon Market Reform: The Summer's Big Overhaul
On 17 July, the European Commission unveiled its proposal to reform the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), the cornerstone of its climate policy for the post-2030 period. Between a relaxed timeline, extended free allocation, and new offsetting mechanisms, Homaio breaks down the key measures and what they mean for the carbon price.
July 20, 2026
Can EUAs disappear? 5 reasons the carbon market is here to stay
We are often asked: what if Europe decided to stop the carbon market? Here are 5 reasons why this scenario, while theoretically possible, is in practice highly unlikely.
May 7, 2026
2030 EUA Price Predictions: Expert Analysis of 3 Scenarios
2026 is a pivotal year for the EUA market: CBAM is now live with a first official price of €75.36/tCO2, the Brussels Summit reaffirmed the central role of the EU ETS, and major financial institutions are forecasting significant price increases through 2030. These forecasts remain conditional on the outcome of the regulatory review expected in Q3 2026. Three scenarios, one shared bullish conclusion.
April 9, 2026
It's the gas, stupid!
As political pressure mounts to weaken the EU carbon market, Homaio CEO Valentin Lautier argues that Europe’s real competitive threat isn't the price of carbon, but its structural reliance on imported fossil fuels. To drive reindustrialization and energy security, the carbon price must remain a strong, stable, and ambitious signal for long-term investment.
March 16, 2026
The Carbon Market Under Political Stress: Temporary Volatility or Paradigm Shift?
As European Union Allowance (EUA) prices recently tested a floor around €70, the market appears to be factoring in an unprecedented "political risk premium." Between Italy’s calls for suspension and Germany’s budgetary debates, are the fundamentals of the world's largest carbon market truly under threat? An analysis of the forces at play as the 2026 legislative review approaches.
March 10, 2026
EU Carbon Market: How the Antwerp Summit Sparked a New Battle for Europe’s Industrial Future
The European Industrial Summit in Antwerp has exposed a significant political struggle over the future of the EU carbon market (EU ETS). Amid calls for price relief from certain industrial member states and a firm defense of the market’s integrity by the European Commission, this article analyzes the causes of the recent flash crash and explains why, despite political volatility, the structural supply deficit continues to support the long-term investment case for carbon.
February 13, 2026
What are the EUA price forecasts for 2030?
All EUA price forecasts point in the same direction: significantly higher by 2030, conditional on the outcome of the regulatory review expected in Q3 2026. Industrial activity, gas markets and regulatory supply tightening are the three structural forces at play. Here is a scenario-by-scenario breakdown of what to watch, and what it means for long-term investors.
January 6, 2026